When reading media coverage about changes to Canada’s electricity system it would be tempting to ask the question, “Is Canada on track to achieve 100 per cent clean electricity by 2035?” This is the wrong question, and answering it creates more confusion than clarity.
No one is calling for 100 per cent clean electricity by 2035—neither the proposed federal clean electricity regulations, nor the advice coming out of the Canada Electricity Advisory Council. What is needed is a step-wise transformation of Canada’s electricity system into one that is predominantly non-emitting, and sufficiently large to meet growing demand. A dogmatic approach to near-term emission elimination from our grid overlooks practicalities essential for a sustainable and economically viable transition.
Electricity is at the heart of the net-zero transition because it is the best option to decarbonize major parts of key sectors including transportation, industry, and residential heating. There is a strong consensus that electricity will account for 40-60 per cent of total future energy consumption compared to today’s 20 per cent. This is why it is vital to grow and clean our electricity sector strategically, ensuring it meets future demand affordably and reliably.
No one is calling for 100 per cent clean electricity by 2035—neither the proposed federal clean electricity regulations, nor the advice coming out of the Canada Electricity Advisory Council.
Dan Wicklum, CEO, The Transition Accelerator
Canada’s electricity system currently accounts for 47 Mt or six per cent of Canada’s emissions. The real prize is not getting the electricity sector to absolute zero emissions quickly, it is the 100s of megatons of emissions reduction that electrification will deliver by the efficiencies inherent in the use of electricity versus fossil fuels—EVs are 60-70 per cent more efficient than internal combustion engines—and foregoing the actual fossil fuel emissions themselves.
Increased electricity demand is inevitable, and our grid must evolve to support this shift. The good news is that electricity emission reductions are already over 50 per cent relative to 2005 levels. The challenge is maintaining that momentum as our demand grows. The notion that our electricity system must be 100 per cent clean, with no tolerance for any fossil fuel use by 2035, misses critical aspects of the transition.
Flexibility in our electricity system is crucial. Allowing for minimal, strategic use of natural gas can provide the necessary backup during periods of low renewable generation or unexpected demand surges. It’s about finding a pragmatic balance: maximizing clean electricity while allowing for necessary conventional backup to safeguard the system’s integrity.
Regional considerations must play a significant role in shaping our forward strategy. Different regions have varied renewable potentials, and existing infrastructure that can be leveraged. Provinces with hydroelectric resources or nuclear experience have a head start, while others might need a mix that includes some natural gas to maintain grid stability. In remote northern communities, the focus should not be on emissions—since they are insignificant—but on energy security, and especially meaningful economic participation in the full suite of opportunities presented by the net-zero transition.
The transition to a net-zero electricity system also needs a deliberate focus on things other than clean generation. The electricity system of the future is likely to look different than that of the past. Investment in grid modernization and smart technologies is required to improve energy storage solutions, integrate demand response systems, and capitalize on the stabilizing influence of regional interties.
What seems certain is the scale of the challenge will require different approaches than those that worked in the past and resulted in our current system. Strategic convening to ensure coordination and collaboration at provincial and regional scales among the full value chain of players including demand, distribution, and supply interests, but also labour, finance, and Indigenous communities is a new recipe for success, especially considering the very limited federal jurisdiction.
The goal of a net-zero aligned electricity system should focus on strategic growth and cleaning of the sector. A balanced approach that incorporates clean electricity technologies, modernized grids, and minimal, strategic use of fossil fuels where necessary will best serve our economic and environmental objectives. By maintaining flexibility and pragmatism, we can build an electricity system that is not only clean and sustainable, but also reliable and affordable, ensuring that we achieve our broader net-zero objectives without compromising on economic viability or consumer trust. Let’s keep our eyes on the prize.